At the beginning of the month, the hard-fought-for Dutch coalition that Geert Wilders had won the right to be part of – and forfeited his right to be prime minister of the country for – had iced out the conservative leader one too many times over his party’s hard-line immigration stance.
After all, campaigning on border controls and deportations was what had gotten them elected. Wilders was determined to see reforms enacted, be damned what the EU diktats were. He wanted to enact what the Dutch people had voted his party in to do.
As he watched his ‘partners’ effectively enact their own cordon sanitaire on any Freedom Party (PVV) priority over the course of this past year, Wilders decided he’d had enough and withdrew his five ministers from the coalition, effectively collapsing the Dutch government.
Consolation prize prime minister Dick Schoof resigned that same day.
Dutch PM Schoof (left) has resigned after Geert Wilders (right) PVV Party pulled out of the coalition crashing it down citing immigration issues.
Schoof had facilitated in 2024 talks around immigration reform but has apparently pulled back from those agreements, discussions.… pic.twitter.com/3O3AAGpovI
— TrashDiscourse (@TrashDiscourse) June 3, 2025
Bets were that withdrawing over immigration alone would hurt Wilders should snap elections be held. The consensus was that his hard-line act had run its course, with everyone being tired of gridlock and an uninspired Dutch government.
There was a small cadre of those who believed that what was happening on the streets in the Netherlands, because of immigration and the sclerotic pace of any action from the government, would actually play to Wilders’ favor. The Dutch people, it was believed, would see his exit as a sign of strength and determination and reward the PVV for sticking to principles instead of toeing the EU line.
It turns out that might have been a pretty safe bet to take, considering what the first polling is looking like after the eruption.
YESSS!! 👍
PVV +5 zetels
VVD -4 zetels
GL/PvdA -3 zetelsPVV op 1 met 33 zetels!!
NEDERLAND WIL DE PVV!!
EN GEEN YESILGOZ/TIMMERMANS#PVV #PVVOP1 #WILDERS @Opiniepanel @EenVandaag pic.twitter.com/QOefbXG8N1
— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) June 10, 2025
That’s a pop.
Geert Wilders and his Dutch Party for Freedom jumped in the election polls after leaving the Netherlands’ ruling coalition. https://t.co/8SkCanm3yJ
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) June 10, 2025
Sticking to your conservative guns is no longer the kiss of death in a swiftly changing European political landscape.
It appeared the PVV gained due to its tough stance on migration after the other parties in the government maintained their positions.
The Netherlands did not co-sign a letter from nine EU leaders calling for more flexibility in interpreting the European Convention on Human Rights to allow them to expel criminal migrants.
Because tougher policies appeared to be disregarded by his partners, Wilders and the PVV decided to leave the coalition.
The Dutch snap elections are scheduled for October 29th.
In that same stretch, just a little over a week ago, Poland had its presidential election. Prime Minister Donald Tusk got a nasty shock as his Eurocentric candidate went down in defeat to a nationalist ‘far-right’ history professor from the same party as current Polish President Duda, whom Tusk has found extraordinarily obstructive.
President-elect Karol Nawrocki has already pledged to use his veto power to thwart Tusk’s EU-friendly, progressive agenda, which had Tusk talking ominously and cryptically tough about elections, ‘changing nothing’, and carrying on his agenda unimpeded.
Those sorts of sentiments are worrying in an Eastern European country not far removed from strongmen ruling it, but they are assumed to be music to Brussels’ ears, as Tusk’s agenda is essentially Ursula Von der Leyen’s.
Tusk was so incensed by Nawrocki’s victory that he also called for a confidence vote, scheduled for tomorrow, and analysts are sure Tusk feels he’ll carry the day, and uncertain if he’ll resign if he doesn’t.
That could cause its own problems.
There have been a couple of simultaneous developments that have just happened, however, which may well change the outcome of that confidence vote.
The first has to be sending a cold chill down Tusk’s spine. The ‘opposition’ in this case is the president-elect’s PiS party.
Polish PM Tusk’s coalition partner polls members on joining opposition
The Polish People’s Party (PSL), Poland’s ruling centre-left coalition member, has polled its members on whether it should consider teaming up with the current opposition Conservatives (PiS) and the Confederation party.
Without them, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s majority would collapse.
The PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated Rafał Trzaskowski from Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) in the presidential election of June 1.
That meant the PiS had maintained an ally in the presidential palace in potentially blocking legislation and influencing senior appointments, as outgoing President Andrzej Duda is also PiS aligned.
…The PSL, which has a traditionally rural base and was Conservative on social issues such as abortion and LGBT rights, holds 32 of the Third Way’s 64 MPs and without them Tusk’s majority would collapse.
That’s bad enough, although, as of yesterday, the PSL was downplaying any strife within the Tusk coalition itself.
That may change after the word that came out of Brussels today regarding the disposition of the dreaded Mercosur free trade agreement between the EU and the ‘Mercosur’ alliance of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Uruguay.
Donald Tusk, with EU his head table seat, had assured Polish farmers that their interests would be protected at every point during the negotiations, as the Mercosur countries are not being required to adhere to the same stringent agricultural regulations as European farmers are before those products are allowed to flood into the continent.
Quite reasonably, European farmers are terrified that cheaper South American food product imports will destroy their industry.
‘No worries,’ Tusk told Polish farmers. ‘I’ve got you.’
With MERCOSUR seemingly green-lighted, Polish conservatives say the country’s farmers have been betrayed
Despite meeting with Macron “many times” and assurances given to farmers, Donald Tusk failed to secure Polish interests
The conservative Law & Justice (PiS) party in Poland says the conclusion of the free trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Uruguay) is already a foregone conclusion, which is “very unfavorable” for Polish farmers, according to Do Rzeczy.
Just last November, the portal recalls, Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that Poland would not accept the agreement with the Mercosur group in the area of agriculture.
…He then blamed Tusk for not “securing Polish interests” during one of his “many” meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron.
“So, all these assurances, both at the level of the Ministry of Agriculture and Prime Minister Tusk himself, turned out to be pure propaganda for the election campaign,” Buda said.
The question arises, did Tusk intend to go along with Macron’s plans all along, content that he had the presidential seat sewn up? Did Tusk pull an Old Magoo?
Remember, the PSL, on which his coalition rests, is a mainly rural, agricultural party, and they were already testing the waters on the other side.
What do they do in the next 24 hours as this devastating economic betrayal washes over them?
Poland might very well slip away from Von der Leyen’s grasp tomorrow if enough farmers and country folk hear about this in time that they can influence their PSL representatives in the Polish parliament.
And that’s only one party. Surely, there will be others who are angry about this. It’s going to have an enormous impact on the Polish economy.
Tusk may have overplayed his hand trying to keep that seat at the big kids’ table.
