Donald Trump began his presidency with the shortest of honeymoons.
To give you an idea of just how set people’s opinion of Trump really is, a “honeymoon” for him is an evenly divided country. He inched into positive territory on some polls, and given pollsters’ history of getting Trump’s support wrong, it’s not unfair to assume that his support really did exceed 50% by a small margin.
In that first month, Trump was definitely on a roll–love DOGE or hate it, Trump benefited from his whirlwind of activity and the complete collapse of the Democratic Party.
Then came his announcement of “liberation day,” which gave Democrats an issue with some legs to focus on, and the American people really did not know what to think. Would tariffs spur investment, or raise prices? Wild gyrations in the stock market created anxiety, as did Trump’s inconsistent messaging on what exactly he was trying to do.
His poll numbers took a real hit. In the RealClearPolitics poll, the average approval for Trump dropped from about a 50-50 split to 7 points underwater.
Democrats became ecstatic. Even if their own numbers didn’t look good. At least Trump’s were dropping quickly.
That trend has reversed, and quickly, with the shift driven by an increase in confidence that Trump’s tariff policies will pay off.
Morning Consult – Trump Approval
Approve: 48% (=)
Disapprove: 50% (=)
——
Trump’s net approval – Trade Policy🔴 May 11: -7%
🟡 May 19: Even
🟢 May 25: +2%
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(shift vs last week) | May 23-25 | RVshttps://t.co/vIWDNsoasU https://t.co/9TNa5nUTxt pic.twitter.com/GQ7yoziS4T
According to Morning Consult’s poll, there has been a 9-point swing in voters’ approval of Trump’s trade policy in just two weeks.
Trade sentiment improves: For the first time since March, more voters approve than disapprove of Trump’s handling of trade policy (47% to 45%). Voters remain closely divided over whether they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy or trust Republicans over Democrats to deal with the matter.
This increase is not a fluke. We know that because of optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence had been dropping over the past couple of months, again due to uncertainty about Trump’s trade policies. In May it skyrocketed, far outstripping expectations.
🚨 CNBC: Consumer confidence SURGED in May — far surpassing expectations. pic.twitter.com/CAjHRI8VlN
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 27, 2025
All this suggests that the drop in support for Trump was a mirage. No doubt, Trump will face some crises or setbacks that will drive his support down somewhat, but Democrats’ elation that the Teflon coating that has turned Trump’s skin orange has worn off was premature.
🚨 Consumer Confidence for May STRONGER THAN EXPECTED on optimism for trade deals!@CNBC: ‘The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April.’ pic.twitter.com/l8npvNJ31c
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 27, 2025
The Democrats’ strategy of loudly screaming about every little thing has backfired. Every time they predict disasters that don’t come, Trump gains a bit more benefit of the doubt.
Movin’ on Up: Consumer Confidence Does a BOINK!https://t.co/6gwZT7SxO5
— HotAir.com (@hotairblog) May 27, 2025
They tell you not to flail around when you are drowning–it just makes things worse–but panicked people often do.
Well, the Democrats are drowning, and all that flailing hasn’t helped a bit.
